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Blog posts
2199
2026
log(life) The Architecture of a Lived Experience
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In the near future, our wearable tech—glasses, earbuds, or neural interfaces—will do more than just play music or show notifications. They will listen. Not for advertising, but for legacy.
From Wall Street to the Sidelines Can We Quant-Trade Sports?
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The intersection of econometrics and sports data presents a compelling question: Can the same quantitative methods used in stock markets be applied to sports betting? The short answer is yes—if you treat the betting slip like a financial asset.
测算共产主义
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- 测算每个国家的“机会线”—— 每个人至少每个月要得到多少ubi才能保证ta有上升的机会（e.g. 衣食无忧，能租房，有基本医疗保险，有最性价比的人力资本投资工具…)
- 测算福利开支= 人口*机会线（每个人ubi），会占目前gdp的百分之几？
- 测算按照目前生产力水平，要有多少个人（百分之几）在工作（假设他们能在最efficient的productivity task上面工作），才能达到福利开支
- 推论：共产主义需要至少有xx%的人自愿工作
Non-Profit Education: AI for Curiosity
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Education non-profit to use AI to boost curiosity
2025
Thoughts about designing Econ PhD first year class
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If I had to pick one thing the first-year PhD sequence truly taught me, it’s this: economics is about connecting dots—and I don’t mean the kind you see on problem sets. When I was in college, economics felt like a set of disconnected islands: reduced-form causal inference lived on one continent, micro theory built castles on another, macro models drifted somewhere far away in the fog, and econometrics… well, econometrics was its own planet, orbiting everything but touching nothing.
The Art of Faking It: How to fake causality
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Economics students spend years learning how to distinguish genuine cause-and-effect from mere correlation. But what isn’t taught in class is the reverse: how to fake causality.
怎么上社会实践这门课
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《社会实践》：如何设计一门“去到现实中”的课？
在中国的本科教育中，有一门很常见但形式差异巨大的暑期课程，叫做《社会实践》。不同学校、不同院系对它的理解和组织方式差异非常大。以我当时本科的北京大学经济学院为例，这门课的形式包括：老师联系地方企业或政府部门，组织学生实地参访；也可以由学生自主联系社会资源，自主选题开展调研。最终的考核往往是一份调研报告，通过就能获得课程学分。
一些关于中国历史周期律的想法
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纵观世界历史，任何政权最终都难逃兴衰循环：无论多么强盛的王朝，最终都难逃衰亡的命运。从埃及法老的陵墓、罗马帝国的废墟到紫禁城的兴衰，人类文明的画卷上，王朝更迭似乎成了永恒不变的底色。中华帝国的“秦制”体系可以长期维持大一统格局：在相当长的时期里，中国的皇朝体制堪称稳健、持续性强。可以说，从统一六国到帝制结束，如果以王朝存在时间进行打分并与世界进行横向比较，这个制度可谓交出了一张“90分”的答卷。但纵观历史，诸侯割据、农民起义、边患内乱等多重因素最终击碎了每一个王朝。即使是拾人牙慧，我也想对“历史周期律”这个问题进行自己的理解和总结。
Two-Stage Game in Law Legislation and Enforcement
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Every Firm is doing unlawful business
Recently, I was chatting with a friend when driving a car, while listening the podcast together at the same time. Must be inspired by some topics in the bodcast, my friend shared a “dark fact” by his friend. He told me that, his friend’s family is doing international trade, particularly about shipping. So his friend told him that, strictly speaking, almost all Chinese foreign-trade firms are now doing unlawful tariff avoidance under the current law and regulations. But the government just turns a blind eye. I have no clue whether this is the fact or being exaggerated, but I will not be surprised if it is true. It makes perfect sense from an economic perspective!
If I were a middle/high school teacher
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If I were
Some days, I find myself drifting into random “What if I were…” questions. What if I were a professor—how would I advise my students? What if I were the mayor of Guangzhou—how would I boost its prosperity? What if I were a historian—what period of history would fascinate me most? These thoughts often appear out of nowhere, but more often than not, they are linked to the careers I casually imagined for myself when I was younger. One of the most frequent “What if I were” questions that comes to mind is: What if I were a middle or high school teacher? And when I think about it, my focus is always on this: What would be the most important thing to teach my students?
Some thoughts after exploring AI
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My Experience
“Last week, I stumbled upon an incredible AI coding setup: VS Code, Cline, and DeepSeek (a combination I learned about from this fantastic YouTube tutorial. While I was excited about the potential of AI in coding, I was completely blown away by how quickly it’s become so accessible to people without much knowledge of python. Using this setup made me feel like a “product manager” guiding the development and a “full-stack software engineer” executing it all.
Two research ideas
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Research Idea A: Who achieves “American Dream” through graduate education
- Research Question: Given that immigration opportunity represents a significant potential return on graduate education investment, what factors determine international students’ success in entering the labor market of a developed country and economic prosperity in the United States?
Small charity practice: How to donate $400 for rural education?
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As 2025 rolls in, I’ve found myself craving something beyond research papers and econometrics models. This year, I’ve decided to channel my inner (but small) philanthropist and dedicate $400 (roughly 3,000 RMB) to helping primary school kids in one of the most underdeveloped rural areas in China. But as I sit down to strategize, one thing becomes clear: donating is much harder than it looks.